Tariffs were meant to pull production out of China. Three years of shipping data show something more complicated: China is exporting more than ever, Vietnam is growing faster than anyone, and the total volume of goods arriving in the US has barely moved. What changed is where the containers come from.
China: exporting more, shipping less to the US
China’s exports rose 5.5% in 2025 to $3.77 trillion, and its trade surplus reached a record of almost $1.2 trillion. This year has been stronger again. Exports in the first seven months of 2026 were up 18% on the same period of 2025, and August alone was up 25%.
Shipments to the US followed a very different path. US container imports from China hit an all-time monthly record of 1,022,913 TEUs in July 2024, as importers rushed goods in ahead of expected tariffs. Through 2025 they fell steadily, reaching 705,789 TEUs in December, 31% below that peak. The low point came in April 2026, at 680,778 TEUs.
Since then, volumes have partly recovered. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, and by July China-origin imports had reached 873,129 TEUs, the highest since July 2025. China’s share of all US container imports fell from 38% in 2024 to 34% in 2025, and was back up to 34.8% by July 2026.
China didn’t lose its exports. It sent more of them to other markets while US tariffs were high, and some of that volume is now coming back.
Vietnam: the biggest winner
Vietnam’s exports rose 17% in 2025 to a record $475 billion, with the US its largest customer at about $153 billion. Its share of US container imports rose by two percentage points.
2026 has been extraordinary. In the first ten months of the year exports grew 27.5% to $499 billion, already more than the whole of 2025. October set a monthly record of $64.7 billion, up 51% on a year earlier.
But Vietnam runs on Chinese inputs
Look at the other side of Vietnam’s trade and the picture changes. Its imports grew even faster than its exports, up 37% in the first ten months of 2026 to $511 billion, and China remains its largest trading partner by a wide margin, with two-way trade of around $252 to $256 billion in 2025. Vietnam ran a trade deficit for most of 2026, its first in a decade, as factories brought in machinery and materials.
For importers, that matters in two ways. A product finished in Vietnam may still be full of Chinese components, so a disruption in China can still stop your production. And US customs looks hard at whether goods are genuinely made in Vietnam or only routed through it. Origin is decided by where a product is substantially transformed, not where it ships from.
India, Thailand and Indonesia
The rest of Asia is gaining too, from a smaller base. India climbed to third place among sources of US container imports in 2025. Comparing January 2026 with January 2025, US imports from Thailand rose 36.5%, from Indonesia 18% and from Vietnam 17.8%.
The new US tariff structure may push this further. Since July, India and Indonesia have paid a lower extra tariff than Vietnam or Thailand.
What this means for sourcing
- Don’t read “China is over” into the headlines. China is still a third of US container imports and the world’s deepest supply base for most consumer products.
- Diversify product by product, not country by country. Whether moving production pays depends on whether your product is on the older China Section 301 lists, which still add 7.5% to 25%.
- Know where your inputs come from, not just where your goods are finished. That’s what customs, tariff rules and forced labour regulations look at.
- Look beyond Vietnam. India, Indonesia and Malaysia now carry a lower extra US tariff, and their factories are growing quickly.
Talk to us
Bellson Global has sourced and managed production across China, Vietnam and the rest of Asia for more than 20 years. If you’re deciding where to make your next product, we can compare factories and full landed costs country by country. Get in touch or see what we do.
Sources: Descartes Datamyne Global Shipping Reports, Trading Economics, Vietnam News (National Statistics Office data) and China’s General Administration of Customs as reported by AP and Reuters.
Last updated 7 November 2026. Monthly trade figures are revised from time to time, so check the latest releases before relying on a specific number.
