Container freight rates have swung harder in the past two years than most importers’ budgets allowed for. Drewry’s World Container Index, the composite cost of moving a 40-foot container on eight major routes, fell to $1,927 in early December 2025, then more than doubled to $4,639 by July 2026. In late October it stood at $4,429.
The two-year picture
Rates never returned to pre-pandemic levels. Even in October 2024 the composite index was 126% above the 2019 average of $1,420. The chart below shows how far it has moved since.
2025: tariff whiplash
2025 was driven by US tariff announcements. When the US paused its highest tariffs in May, importers rushed to ship, and the index jumped 70% in four weeks to $3,543 by mid June. Drewry warned at the time that rates would weaken in the second half as tariff uncertainty dragged on, and they did. By early December the index was down to $1,927, and US container imports for the year ended almost exactly level with 2024.
2026: the climb back
Carriers pushed rates up in January with general rate increases, which Drewry described as opportunistic, and they faded again by March. The real rise began in May. Importers frontloaded cargo ahead of tariff changes and higher fuel costs, and in late June the index hit a 22-month high of $4,166. By early July, Shanghai to Los Angeles cost $6,482 per container and Shanghai to New York $7,904.
Fuel has been a big part of it. Bunker prices surged after the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz early in the year, and carriers have passed that on. Our post on high oil prices and peak season shipping covers the fuel side in detail.
Transpacific and Asia to Europe are now moving differently
The two main lanes are following different drivers. Transpacific rates react to US tariffs and US demand. Asia to Europe rates now depend mostly on the Red Sea. As container lines return to the Suez Canal, they free up ships, and in early November carriers were already discounting Asia to North Europe spot rates to between $2,700 and $3,400 per container. Analysts at Xeneta have said a full return to Suez could send rates sharply lower.
Different indices give different numbers for the same lane, because they sample different contracts and dates. In late October, the Freightos Baltic Index put Asia to US West Coast at $8,126 per container, well above Drewry’s figures. Compare like with like when you check a quote.
What to do
- Don’t lock 2027 contracts at today’s levels on Asia to Europe. Shorter terms or index-linked rates leave room to benefit if Suez pushes prices down.
- On the Transpacific, a mix of contract and spot volume protects you both ways.
- Book Chinese New Year cargo early. The holiday falls on 6 February 2027, 11 days earlier than this year.
- Budget fuel separately from base freight, and check how each quote calculates its bunker charge.
- Track one index consistently, so you can tell whether a quote is fair.
Talk to us
Bellson Global plans production and freight together for brands shipping from Asia, so freight costs are built into order timing and landed cost before goods leave the factory. Get in touch or see what we do.
See also: how export shipments from China, Vietnam and the rest of Asia have shifted since 2024.
Sources: Drewry World Container Index, The Loadstar and FreightWaves.
Last updated 7 November 2026. Freight rates change weekly, so check current quotes with your forwarder.
